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BKREA Founder, Chairman and CEO Bob Knakal examines the evolving Manhattan investment sales market in his latest Concrete Thoughts column for Commercial Observer, highlighting the disconnect between rising dollar volume and the number of properties changing hands. His analysis of 2025 and first-half 2026 data reveals that capital is returning to Manhattan real estate, but overall transaction activity remains below historical averages.
Manhattan investment sales totaled $19.914 billion in 2025, with first-half 2026 volume reaching $10.173 billion. At the current pace, the market is projected to generate approximately $20.346 billion in annual sales volume. However, transaction counts tell a different story, with 2026 on pace for approximately 682 property sales compared with the long-term annual average of 704.
Manhattan investment sales are projected to exceed 2025 dollar volume, yet the number of properties sold remains below historical averages. A complete market assessment requires examining both measures.
Improved financing availability and investor confidence are supporting recovery across several commercial real estate sectors.
Office, retail, development land, hotels, and free-market multifamily are demonstrating stronger market conditions, supported by renewed investor demand, condominium development, limited hotel supply, and rental fundamentals.
Constrained revenue growth and rising operating expenses continue to pressure rent-regulated properties, with values remaining approximately 80% below peak levels based on BKREA's observations.
Despite significant improvement since the pandemic-era downturn, property sales remain below the long-term average. A sustained increase in the number of properties trading would indicate a broader market recovery.
BKREA's historical transaction research provides owners, investors, and brokers with a framework for understanding market cycles, evaluating pricing, and identifying opportunities beyond headline sales figures.
Knakal's research highlights the importance of looking beyond total investment dollars to understand the true health of Manhattan's commercial real estate market. While capital flows and financing conditions are improving, a more complete recovery will require increased property turnover and more owners bringing assets to market.
According to Knakal:
“Dollar volume tells us how much money is moving; properties sold tell us how much the market is moving.”
This data-driven perspective reinforces BKREA's commitment to proprietary research, market intelligence, and informed investment sales advisory.
What is the main finding of Bob Knakal's analysis?
Manhattan's investment sales dollar volume is recovering faster than the number of properties changing hands, indicating that the market has not fully returned to historical transaction levels.
How much investment sales volume did Manhattan record in 2025?
Manhattan recorded approximately $19.914 billion in investment sales during 2025.
What is the projected investment sales volume for 2026?
Based on first-half activity, Manhattan is on pace to reach approximately $20.346 billion in investment sales volume in 2026.
Which commercial real estate sectors are showing improvement?
Office, retail, land, hotels, and free-market multifamily are showing signs of stronger activity, while rent-regulated multifamily continues to face significant challenges.
Why is transaction velocity important?
Transaction velocity measures how many properties are changing hands. An increase above the long-term average would signal a broader and more sustained market recovery.
What is BKREA's role in this analysis?
BKREA combines proprietary market research, historical transaction data, and investment sales expertise to help property owners and investors understand market conditions and make informed decisions.
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